Crazy American Elections

Published February 11, 2008
INQUIRER.net

Despite the massive cheating, the routine vote-rigging and the violence, elections Philippine-style is still much easier to understand than the American system. This has been underscored in the current presidential race which undoubtedly has become the most complex in recent years, especially on the Democratic side.

It is already a virtual certainty that John McCain will be the Republican nominee with his victories last week and the withdrawal of his main challenger, Mitt Romney. But the battle between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama will continue for months, and possibly will not be settled until the Democratic convention in Denver in August.

Many had hoped that a clear Democratic frontrunner would emerge from Super Tuesday when about two dozen states held primaries. But that didn’t happen.Obama won more states. But Clinton won the bigger states with more delegates, including California and New York. Unlike the Republicans, who had a winner-take-all system in their primaries, the Democrats award delegates based on the proportion of total votes a candidate wins.

A candidate needs 2,025 delegates to win the Democratic nomination. Based on the Associated Press’ tally on Friday, Feb. 8, it was still a virtual tie. Obama had 796 delegates; Clinton had 794. Based on the broader count that includes so-called “super delegates,” however, Clinton was ahead overall with 1,055 delegates to Obama‘s 998.

Okay, I know, this is where it gets a bit super-confusing. What in the world is a super delegate?

I get to use my Poli Sci degree from UP Diliman here. (Well, not really. I got most of this from friends and the media, particularly NPR and CNN.) Super delegates are essentially Democratic Party big shots – current and former elected officials (including Bill Clinton), members of the Democratic National Committee, etc. – who get to cast their votes for a presidential candidate at the convention. They make up about a fifth of the total vote count. In past nominations, they didn’t really make a difference as most of them voted for the candidate who emerged victorious in the primaries and caucuses.

But this has turned out to be a very tight race. So the super delegates could be the decisive factor. Many of them have already pledged their vote to either Clinton or Obama. Clearly, Clinton has the edge here. (The Republicans have their own super delegate system, but they are likely to play a key role this year.)There are other potential complications in the Democratic contest. In a bid to gain more prominence in the nomination process, the Democratic and Republican parties in Michigan and Florida decided to move their primaries earlier in the year in violation of their respective parties’ rules and were penalized.

As a result, the Republicans will recognize only half the delegates from both states. The Democrats were more severe – the party stripped the two states of all their delegates. That was a blow to Clinton who won both states but didn’t get any delegates. But some observers have said that could be contested if the race gets really tight.

So the battle rages on and it’s bound to get more intense. And we’re not even in the main attraction yet.Whether this year’s race is between Obama and McCain or Clinton and McCain, it’s bound to be exciting and extremely contentious. Of course, many hope it won’t be a repeat of the 2000 contest when Al Gore won the popular vote -- but still lost.As a Turkish columnist told the Washington Post back then, “One candidate can get a majority of the popular vote but he may lose the elections. For us, it is a bit strange, to say the least.”

How did this “strange” outcome happen?

It goes back to a feature of the American system that many find hard to understand. To quickly recap, it’s a winner-take-all system in the main event.

A candidate who wins in a particular state wins all the electoral votes of that state.

Well, something very strange happened in Florida. Tens of thousands of votes apparently got lost. When Gore asked for a recount, the US Supreme Court ruled refused, essentially handing the victory to George W. Bush.

The rest is history. And many in the United States -- and the world – hope it won’t be repeated.